Bournemouth v Sunderland prediction: Bournemouth win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

52%

26%

22%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

46%

27%

Bournemouth winDrawSunderland win

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

2–1

10%

2–0

9%

1–0

9%

0–0

7%

How we got to 52%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Sunderland's defence

+9

Bournemouth's attack

+6

Bournemouth's defence

−4

Sunderland's attack

+2

Our call: Bournemouth win

52%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Sunderland are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Bournemouth created 1.9 and allowed 1.1 a game. Over their last 5 away games Sunderland created 1.7 and allowed 1.8.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Bournemouth created (home)

1.9

Bournemouth allowed (home)

1.1

Sunderland created (away)

1.7

Sunderland allowed (away)

1.8

2 · Form

Sunderland arrive in better form

Last five league games: Bournemouth took 3 points, Sunderland took 4.

Bournemouth

DDDLL

Sunderland

WDLLL

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Results vs performance

Bournemouth's results undersell them by 4 points

Bournemouth have 11 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Bournemouth get more credit than their results.

4 · Head to head

Not much history to go on

All of the last 2 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Feb 2026Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland
Nov 2025Sunderland 3-2 Bournemouth

Sunderland's leaky defence hands Bournemouth the edge