Inkwell & Algorithm, Matchweek 7

Match of the week · Mon 20:00

Nothing to split Tottenham and Coventry

We call Tottenham win, 1–0. If Coventry's defence were only average, this would swing to a draw (34%).

Tottenham 1–0 Coventry

Our call Home win Confidence: too close to call

Spurs 42%Draw 31%Coventry 27%

Why we're calling it

1Coventry's defenceCoventry concede 29% more than an average side. Worth +9 points to our call.
2Tottenham's results undersell them by 5 pointsTottenham have 10 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Tottenham get more credit than their results.
3The market agreesBookmakers make Tottenham 64% favourites. We have it at 42%.

Read the full breakdown: form, xG, team news and head to head

The rest of the round

9 more matches · kick-off times UK

Sat 12:30After kick-off · Final 0–2

Everton v Chelsea 2–1

Home win

Home 39% · Draw 27% · Away 34%

Nothing to split Everton and Chelsea.

Sat 15:00After kick-off · Final 1–2

Brentford v Liverpool 2–1

Home win

Home 42% · Draw 26% · Away 32%

Nothing to split Brentford and Liverpool.

Sat 15:00After kick-off · Final 1–0

Fulham v Hull 1–0

Home win

Home 38% · Draw 31% · Away 31%

Nothing to split Fulham and Hull.

Sat 15:00After kick-off · Final 3–2

Man City v Ipswich 3–0

Home win

Home 80% · Draw 13% · Away 7%

Ipswich's leaky defence hands Man City the edge.

Sat 17:30After kick-off · Final 0–1

Newcastle v Aston Villa 2–1

Home win

Home 43% · Draw 26% · Away 31%

Nothing to split Newcastle and Aston Villa.

Sun 14:00After kick-off · Final 2–0

Bournemouth v Sunderland 2–1

Home win

Home 52% · Draw 26% · Away 22%

Sunderland's leaky defence hands Bournemouth the edge.

Sun 14:00After kick-off · Final 5–0

Brighton v Crystal Palace 2–1

Home win

Home 60% · Draw 22% · Away 18%

Crystal Palace's leaky defence hands Brighton the edge.

Sun 14:00After kick-off · Final 1–1

Leeds v Man United 2–1

Home win

Home 39% · Draw 28% · Away 33%

Nothing to split Leeds and Man United.

Sun 16:30After kick-off · Final 0–1

Nott'm Forest v Arsenal 0–1

Away win

Home 21% · Draw 28% · Away 50%

Arsenal's attack should be too much for Nott'm Forest.

The round in charts

Hover a mark for the numbers

Where we disagree with the bookies

Our chance for each call against the market's. The bigger the gap, the more our reasons are doing the work.

UsBookmakers

Everton v Chelsea

+9

B'mouth v Sunderland

+6

Man City v Ipswich

+4

Brentford v Liverpool

+2

Newcastle v Villa

+1

Brighton v Palace

-1

Leeds v Man Utd

-1

Forest v Arsenal

-9

Fulham v Hull

-17

Spurs v Coventry

-22

20%50%80%

Attack against defence

Expected goals created and allowed per game this season. Top right is where you want to be.

Better defence (xG allowed)

Good at both Struggling

Coventry

Tottenham

1.0Better attack (xG created)2.6

Our record, week by week

Correct results each week this season, against simply backing the bookmakers' favourite.

UsBookies' favourite

5

7

3

4

5

21 Aug28 Aug04 Sep12 Sep18 Sep10 Oct

We've beaten the favourite in 2 weeks out of 6, and fallen short in 1.

Last week's verdict

5 of 10

Games from 10 October, with 0 exact scores.

Match	Our call	Result	Verdict
Arsenal v Leeds	Home win 1–0	2–1	Right result
Aston Villa v Brentford	Home win 2–1	2–2	Wrong
Chelsea v Bournemouth	Home win 2–1	5–1	Right result
Ipswich v Fulham	Away win 1–2	2–1	Wrong
Man United v Tottenham	Home win 2–0	1–1	Wrong
Sunderland v Brighton	Away win 1–2	0–2	Right result
Crystal Palace v Nott'm Forest	Home win 2–1	3–1	Right result
Hull v Everton	Home win 1–0	2–2	Wrong
Liverpool v Man City	Away win 1–2	0–3	Right result
Coventry v Newcastle	Away win 0–1	4–1	Wrong

Owning the misses

What we got wrong

Verdict: Somewhere in between

Man United v Tottenham: we said Man United to win at 61%. It finished 1–1.

The chances pointed to neither our call nor the result (xG: Man United 0.9, Tottenham 2.0). A closer game than either the score or we suggested.

Each week we pick our most confident wrong call and check it against the chances both sides created. Unlucky means the chances backed us; our mistake means they didn't.

The table

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	Man City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10
7	Leeds	6	+3	9
8	Hull	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	+0	9
10	Ipswich	6	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	-3	7
13	Man United	6	+0	6
14	Coventry	6	-6	6
15	Nott'm Forest	6	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	-4	2

The table they deserved

The same season ranked by the points each side's chances were worth, from expected goals (xG). A plus means results have run ahead of the chances. This describes the season so far. It is not a forecast of where anyone will finish.

#	Club	P	Pts	Deserved	+/−	Real place
1	Arsenal	6	15	11.6	+3.4	2
2	Man City	6	18	11.3	+6.7	1
3	Brighton	6	13	11.0	+2.0	3
4	Nott'm Forest	6	5	10.9	-5.9	15
5	Everton	6	10	9.8	+0.2	5
6	Brentford	6	10	9.3	+0.7	4
7	Bournemouth	6	3	9.2	-6.2	18
8	Man United	6	6	8.9	-2.9	13
9	Liverpool	6	9	8.6	+0.4	9
10	Sunderland	6	4	8.5	-4.5	17
11	Leeds	6	9	7.9	+1.1	7
12	Tottenham	6	3	7.7	-4.7	19
13	Chelsea	6	10	7.3	+2.7	6
14	Fulham	6	2	7.1	-5.1	20
15	Ipswich	6	9	6.9	+2.1	10
16	Hull	6	9	6.5	+2.5	8
17	Newcastle	6	8	6.4	+1.6	11
18	Crystal Palace	6	7	6.3	+0.7	12
19	Aston Villa	6	5	6.1	-1.1	16
20	Coventry	6	6	5.9	+0.1	14