How we call it
Every team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season and the two before it, with recent games counting most. The ratings blend goals with expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of chances. They give each side's expected goals, which become win, draw and loss chances and the single most likely score. Team news from the Fantasy Premier League feed adjusts them. The reasons are the factors that moved each call the most, and the steps always add up to our number.