18 October 2026
Premier League 2026/27
FPL corner
Inkwell & Algorithm
Data-driven Premier League predictions, with the reasons. New every Thursday.
For Fantasy Premier League managers · Gameweek 7
Who keeps a clean sheet, who scores
The same expected goals behind our calls, turned into the numbers FPL managers care about: each club's chance of a clean sheet, of scoring twice or more, and how kind its next few fixtures are.
Clean-sheet chances
| Club | Opponent | Clean sheet | xG against | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | v Ipswich | 43% | 0.85 | 80% |
 Arsenal | at Nott'm Forest | 39% | 0.95 | 51% |
 Tottenham | v Coventry | 36% | 1.02 | 42% |
 Bournemouth | v Sunderland | 34% | 1.08 | 52% |
 Fulham | v Hull | 33% | 1.11 | 38% |
 Brighton | v Crystal Palace | 32% | 1.14 | 60% |
 Hull | at Fulham | 28% | 1.26 | 31% |
 Leeds | v Man United | 26% | 1.36 | 39% |
 Coventry | at Tottenham | 26% | 1.33 | 27% |
 Brentford | v Liverpool | 24% | 1.44 | 42% |
 Everton | v Chelsea | 23% | 1.47 | 38% |
 Newcastle | v Aston Villa | 23% | 1.45 | 43% |
 Man United | at Leeds | 23% | 1.48 | 33% |
 Chelsea | at Everton | 21% | 1.56 | 35% |
 Nott'm Forest | v Arsenal | 21% | 1.58 | 21% |
 Liverpool | at Brentford | 18% | 1.69 | 31% |
 Aston Villa | at Newcastle | 17% | 1.75 | 31% |
 Sunderland | at Bournemouth | 17% | 1.78 | 21% |
 Crystal Palace | at Brighton | 11% | 2.19 | 18% |
 Ipswich | at Man City | 5% | 3.03 | 7% |
Goals expected
| Club | xG | 2+ goals |
|---|---|---|
| Man City v Ipswich | 3.03 | 81% |
| Brighton v Crystal Palace | 2.19 | 64% |
| Bournemouth v Sunderland | 1.78 | 53% |
| Newcastle v Aston Villa | 1.75 | 52% |
| Brentford v Liverpool | 1.69 | 50% |
| Arsenal at Nott'm Forest | 1.58 | 47% |
| Everton v Chelsea | 1.56 | 46% |
| Leeds v Man United | 1.48 | 44% |
| Chelsea at Everton | 1.47 | 43% |
| Aston Villa at Newcastle | 1.45 | 43% |
| Liverpool at Brentford | 1.44 | 42% |
| Man United at Leeds | 1.36 | 39% |
| Tottenham v Coventry | 1.33 | 38% |
| Fulham v Hull | 1.26 | 36% |
| Crystal Palace at Brighton | 1.14 | 32% |
| Hull at Fulham | 1.11 | 30% |
| Sunderland at Bournemouth | 1.08 | 29% |
| Coventry at Tottenham | 1.02 | 27% |
| Nott'm Forest v Arsenal | 0.95 | 25% |
| Ipswich at Man City | 0.85 | 21% |
The fixtures ahead
Gameweeks 7 to 12 · kindest run firstEach cell is a fixture with the club's chance of winning it, the strongest shade for the kindest games and red for the toughest. Upper case is at home. Unlike the 1 to 5 scale in the FPL app, these come from our attack and defence ratings, before any team news.
| Club | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 | Avg win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | IPS80% | avl50% | BHA55% | nfo50% | FUL68% | ars27% | 55% |
| Arsenal | nfo50% | EVE63% | liv44% | HUL63% | new53% | MCI45% | 53% |
| Brighton | CRY60% | liv33% | mci21% | BRE50% | hul40% | NEW57% | 44% |
| Bournemouth | SUN52% | mun27% | LEE43% | ips49% | NFO48% | ful38% | 43% |
| Chelsea | eve34% | TOT56% | MUN42% | sun40% | LEE45% | nfo35% | 42% |
| Leeds | MUN39% | sun37% | bou29% | TOT51% | che29% | COV54% | 40% |
| Man United | lee33% | BOU48% | che33% | AVL52% | liv30% | BRE46% | 40% |
| Brentford | LIV42% | hul36% | NFO50% | bha25% | EVE49% | mun28% | 38% |
| Liverpool | bre32% | BHA41% | ARS27% | cry41% | MUN44% | eve36% | 37% |
| Aston Villa | new31% | MCI24% | FUL47% | mun23% | SUN48% | ips45% | 36% |
| Tottenham | COV43% | che20% | CRY40% | lee21% | IPS51% | sun27% | 34% |
| Crystal Palace | bha18% | NEW41% | tot32% | LIV32% | cov34% | HUL40% | 33% |
| Everton | CHE39% | ars13% | new30% | COV50% | bre24% | LIV35% | 32% |
| Hull | ful31% | BRE35% | IPS55% | ars12% | BHA30% | cry31% | 32% |
| Newcastle | AVL43% | cry33% | EVE43% | ful33% | ARS21% | bha20% | 32% |
| Sunderland | bou22% | LEE33% | cov32% | CHE34% | avl25% | TOT43% | 32% |
| Coventry | tot26% | FUL37% | SUN37% | eve21% | CRY37% | lee19% | 30% |
| Fulham | HUL38% | cov33% | avl25% | NEW39% | mci12% | BOU34% | 30% |
| Nott'm Forest | ARS21% | ips44% | bre24% | MCI24% | bou26% | CHE39% | 30% |
| Ipswich | mci7% | NFO29% | hul19% | BOU26% | tot23% | AVL29% | 22% |
Chances, not tips. Clean-sheet chances are for the whole match, so a defender subbed off early can miss out even when the team keeps one.