18 October 2026 Premier League 2026/27 Latest: Matchweek 7

Inkwell & Algorithm

Data-driven Premier League predictions, with the reasons. New every Thursday.

What this is

Every Premier League match, called and explained

Inkwell & Algorithm puts the back pages and the spreadsheet side by side. Every week a statistical model calls each Premier League match as a home win, a draw or an away win, gives the most likely score, and sets out the reasons in plain English with the numbers behind them.

We care more about why than about the percentage. Each call is broken down into the handful of things that moved it, such as one side's attack, the other's defence or a missing striker, and those steps always add up to our number. We check every call against the bookmakers and publish our record, good weeks and bad. It is analysis, not betting advice.

10,000 simulations of the rest of the season

How the season ends

Man City win the title in 56% of our simulations, and Ipswich go down in 63%. Every club's chances of the title, the top four and relegation, updated each week.

See every club

For FPL managers

Clean-sheet and scoring chances for every club this gameweek, and how kind the next six fixtures are.

FPL corner

How it works

  1. 1

    Collect

    Results, expected goals, bookmakers' odds and team news for this season and the two before it. Nothing older, because squads and managers change too much.

  2. 2

    Rate

    Every team gets an attack and a defence rating. Recent games count most, and the ratings blend real goals with expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of the chances a team makes and gives up.

  3. 3

    Call

    The two teams' ratings give each side's expected goals, which become win, draw and loss chances and the single most likely score. When neither side is a clear favourite we say it is too close to call.

  4. 4

    Explain

    We break each call into the factors that moved it the most, show it next to the bookmakers' view, and say what would change our mind. After the weekend we mark every call right or wrong.

Where the data comes from

All free, public sources, refreshed every morning. New calls every Thursday.

SourceWhat we take from it
football-data.co.ukEvery result, with shots, corners and cards, plus the bookmakers' odds we compare ourselves with, for the last three seasons.
UnderstatExpected goals (xG) for both sides of every match.
Fantasy Premier LeagueTeam news: injuries, suspensions and doubts, and which players a side relies on most.
API-FootballThe coming fixtures and kick-off times, pre-match odds and the club crests.

Club crests belong to their clubs. The code behind the site is open on GitHub.

Our record this season

29 of 60 results right, against 45% for simply backing the bookmakers' favourite. When we disagreed with the bookmakers (10 games), we were right 4 times and they were right 2.

Strong calls (55% or more): 10 of 16 right, 62%. The bookmakers' favourite won 62% of the same games.

The record replays the model week by week using only results known before each game, without team news.

When we say 60%, does it happen?

48%
results right
45%
bookmakers'
favourite

Every matchweek