Match of the week · Sat 15:00
Man City's attack should be too much for Brighton
We call Man City win, 2–1. If Man City's attack were only average, this would swing to an away win (35%).
Man City
2–1
Brighton
Our call
Home win
Confidence: solid
Man City 52%Draw 25%Brighton 24%
Why we're calling it
- 1Man City's attackMan City create and score 51% more than an average side. Worth +16 points to our call.
- 2Man City's results flatter them by 4 pointsMan City have 22 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 18. We rate teams on their chances, so Man City get less credit than their results.
- 3Man City are leaking chances at homeExpected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Man City created 2.5 and allowed 1.8 a game. Over their last 5 away games Brighton created 1.9 and allowed 1.6.
Read the full breakdown: form, xG, team news and head to head
