Coventry v Sunderland prediction: Coventry win 1–0

Us against the market

Our model

34%

32%

34%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Coventry winDrawSunderland win

Most likely scores

1–1

15%

0–0

12%

1–0

10%

0–1

10%

2–1

8%

How we got to 34%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Coventry's attack

−10

Sunderland's defence

+8

Coventry's defence

−6

Sunderland's attack

+3

Coventry team news

−1

Sunderland team news

+1

Our call: Coventry win

34%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Sunderland are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 4 home games Coventry created 1.1 and allowed 1.5 a game. Over their last 5 away games Sunderland created 1.6 and allowed 2.3.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Coventry created (home)

1.1

Coventry allowed (home)

1.5

Sunderland created (away)

1.6

Sunderland allowed (away)

2.3

2 · Team news

Coventry without Amenda

Coventry: Amenda (injured), Thomas (doubtful, 75% to play). Sunderland: Ballard (injured).

Player	Status	Impact
Coventry Amenda	Injured	Medium
Coventry Thomas	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small
Sunderland Ballard	Injured	Medium

3 · Form

Coventry arrive in better form

Last five league games: Coventry took 6 points, Sunderland took 1.

Coventry

LWWLL

Sunderland

LLLLD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Finishing

Sunderland are scoring below their chances

Sunderland have 6 goals from 12.1 xG this season. Finishing like that tends to pick up, so we lean on the chances, not the goals.

Nothing to split Coventry and Sunderland