We call Arsenal win, 0–1, with a 39% chance. Here is everything that went into it.
Liverpool
ArsenalNo bookmaker odds for this game yet.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Liverpool created 1.6 and allowed 1.6 a game. Over their last 5 away games Arsenal created 1.9 and allowed 1.2.
Liverpool: Szoboszlai (injured), Munoz (doubtful, 25% to play). Arsenal: Saka (injured), Calafiori (doubtful, 75% to play), Tzolis (injured), Rice (doubtful, 75% to play).
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Szoboszlai | Injured | Medium |
| Liverpool Munoz | Doubtful, 25% to play | Small |
| Arsenal Saka | Injured | Big |
| Arsenal Calafiori | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Arsenal Tzolis | Injured | Small |
| Arsenal Rice | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
Last five league games: Liverpool took 10 points, Arsenal took 12.
Arsenal have 27 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 20. We rate teams on their chances, so Arsenal get less credit than their results.
All of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.
If Arsenal's attack were only average, this would swing to a home win (35%).
Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal, away win, too close to call