Bournemouth v Leeds prediction: Bournemouth win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

47%

28%

25%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Bournemouth winDrawLeeds win

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

2–1

9%

1–0

9%

2–0

8%

0–0

8%

How we got to 47%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Bournemouth's attack

+8

Bournemouth's defence

−3

Leeds' defence

+2

Bournemouth team news

−1

Leeds' attack

−0

Leeds team news

+0

Our call: Bournemouth win

47%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Leeds are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Bournemouth created 2.4 and allowed 1.0 a game. Over their last 5 away games Leeds created 1.4 and allowed 1.8.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Bournemouth created (home)

2.4

Bournemouth allowed (home)

1.0

Leeds created (away)

1.4

Leeds allowed (away)

1.8

2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Bournemouth: Scott (injured). Leeds: Elvedi (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Bournemouth Scott	Injured	Small
Leeds Elvedi	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Bournemouth arrive in better form

Last five league games: Bournemouth took 7 points, Leeds took 6.

Bournemouth

DLLWW

Leeds

WDLDD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Bournemouth's results undersell them by 6 points

Bournemouth have 11 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 17. We rate teams on their chances, so Bournemouth get more credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Not much history to go on

All of the last 2 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Apr 2026Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds
Sep 2025Leeds 2-2 Bournemouth

Bournemouth's attack should be too much for Leeds