Inkwell & Algorithm Back to Matchweek 9
The breakdown · Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Brentford's attack should be too much for Nott'm Forest

We call Brentford win, 2–1, with a 48% chance. Here is everything that went into it.

Home
Brentford
6th · 11 pts
Our call · confidence: solid
2–1
Home win
Away
Nott'm Forest
18th · 6 pts

Us against the market

Our model
48%
27%
26%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Brentford winDrawNott'm Forest win

Most likely scores

1–1
13%
2–1
10%
2–0
8%
1–0
8%
0–0
7%
How we got to 48%
We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.
Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point
Average home side v average visitor
40%
Brentford's attack
+8
Nott'm Forest's defence
+5
Brentford's defence
−5
Nott'm Forest team news
+0
Brentford team news
−0
Nott'm Forest's attack
−0
Our call: Brentford win
48%
0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Nott'm Forest are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Brentford created 2.1 and allowed 1.4 a game. Over their last 5 away games Nott'm Forest created 2.8 and allowed 1.9.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue
Brentford created (home)
2.1
Brentford allowed (home)
1.4
Nott'm Forest created (away)
2.8
Nott'm Forest allowed (away)
1.9
2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Brentford: Yarmoliuk (suspended). Nott'm Forest: N.Williams (doubtful, 75% to play).

PlayerStatusImpact
Brentford YarmoliukSuspendedSmall
Nott'm Forest N.WilliamsDoubtful, 75% to playSmall
3 · Form

Brentford arrive in better form

Last five league games: Brentford took 6 points, Nott'm Forest took 4.

Brentford
DWDLD
Nott'm Forest
WLLLD
Last 5 league games, most recent on the right
4 · Results vs performance

Nott'm Forest's results undersell them by 10 points

Nott'm Forest have 7 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 17. We rate teams on their chances, so Nott'm Forest get more credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Usually one-sided when they meet

None of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

  • Jan 2026Brentford 0-2 Nott'm Forest
  • Aug 2025Nott'm Forest 3-1 Brentford
  • May 2025Nott'm Forest 0-2 Brentford
  • Dec 2024Brentford 0-2 Nott'm Forest

What would change our mind

The biggest single factor is Brentford's attack. If Brentford's attack were only average, the home win chance would drop to 40%.

Verdict

Brentford 2–1 Nott'm Forest, home win, solid