The breakdown · Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Ipswich's leaky defence hands Hull the edge

We call Hull win, 2–1, with a 50% chance. Here is everything that went into it.

Home

Hull

10th · 10 pts

Our call · confidence: solid

2–1

Home win

Away

Ipswich

12th · 10 pts

Us against the market

Our model

50%

27%

23%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Hull winDrawIpswich win

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

2–1

10%

1–0

2–0

0–0

How we got to 50%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Ipswich's defence

+20

Hull's attack

−7

Hull's defence

−4

Ipswich's attack

Hull team news

−1

Ipswich team news

Our call: Hull win

50%

0%35%70%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Ipswich are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 4 home games Hull created 1.4 and allowed 2.0 a game. Over their last 5 away games Ipswich created 1.5 and allowed 2.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Hull created (home)

1.4

Hull allowed (home)

2.0

Ipswich created (away)

1.5

Ipswich allowed (away)

2.6

2 · Team news

Hull without Mendy

Hull: Mendy (injured). Ipswich: Lukić (injured).

Player	Status	Impact
Hull Mendy	Injured	Medium
Ipswich Lukić	Injured	Small

3 · Form

Ipswich arrive in better form

Last five league games: Hull took 3 points, Ipswich took 7.

Hull

DLDLD

Ipswich

WLWLD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

What would change our mind

If Ipswich's defence were only average, this would swing to an away win (35%).

Verdict

Hull 2–1 Ipswich, home win, solid