We call Chelsea win, 2–1, with a 39% chance. Here is everything that went into it.
Chelsea
Man UnitedNo bookmaker odds for this game yet.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Chelsea created 1.6 and allowed 1.7 a game. Over their last 5 away games Man United created 1.6 and allowed 1.3.
Chelsea: João Pedro (injured), Martinez (injured), Chavarria (injured), James (injured), Lacroix (doubtful, 75% to play). Man United: Shaw (injured), Mainoo (injured), Rashford (doubtful, 75% to play).
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea João Pedro | Injured | Big |
| Chelsea Martinez | Injured | Medium |
| Chelsea Chavarria | Injured | Medium |
| Chelsea James | Injured | Medium |
| Chelsea Lacroix | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Man United Shaw | Injured | Medium |
Last five league games: Chelsea took 7 points, Man United took 3.
Chelsea have 16 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 12. We rate teams on their chances, so Chelsea get less credit than their results.
All of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.
If Chelsea's attack were only average, this would swing to an away win (42%).
Chelsea 2–1 Man United, home win, too close to call