Inkwell & Algorithm Back to Matchweek 9
The breakdown · Monday 02 November, 20:00

Nothing to split Newcastle and Everton

We call Newcastle win, 2–1, with a 44% chance. Here is everything that went into it.

Home
Newcastle
8th · 11 pts
Our call · confidence: too close to call
2–1
Home win
Away
Everton
11th · 10 pts

Us against the market

Our model
44%
28%
28%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Newcastle winDrawEverton win

Most likely scores

1–1
13%
2–1
9%
1–0
8%
0–0
8%
2–0
8%
How we got to 44%
We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.
Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point
Average home side v average visitor
40%
Newcastle's defence
−7
Everton's defence
+5
Newcastle's attack
+4
Everton's attack
+2
Everton team news
+0
Newcastle team news
−0
Our call: Newcastle win
44%
0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Everton are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Newcastle created 1.4 and allowed 1.8 a game. Over their last 5 away games Everton created 1.4 and allowed 1.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue
Newcastle created (home)
1.4
Newcastle allowed (home)
1.8
Everton created (away)
1.4
Everton allowed (away)
1.6
2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Newcastle: Fernandez-Pardo (doubtful, 75% to play), L.Miley (doubtful, 75% to play). Everton: Mykolenko (doubtful, 75% to play), Grealish (doubtful, 75% to play).

PlayerStatusImpact
Newcastle Fernandez-PardoDoubtful, 75% to playSmall
Newcastle L.MileyDoubtful, 75% to playSmall
Everton MykolenkoDoubtful, 75% to playSmall
Everton GrealishDoubtful, 75% to playSmall
3 · Form

Newcastle arrive in better form

Last five league games: Newcastle took 6 points, Everton took 5.

Newcastle
LWLLW
Everton
DWDLL
Last 5 league games, most recent on the right
4 · Results vs performance

Newcastle's results flatter them by 4 points

Newcastle have 14 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 10. We rate teams on their chances, so Newcastle get less credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

3 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

  • Feb 2026Newcastle 2-3 Everton
  • Nov 2025Everton 1-4 Newcastle
  • May 2025Newcastle 0-1 Everton
  • Oct 2024Everton 0-0 Newcastle

What would change our mind

The biggest single factor is Everton's defence. If Everton's defence were only average, the home win chance would drop to 39%.

Verdict

Newcastle 2–1 Everton, home win, too close to call