Man City v Brighton prediction: Man City win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

52%

25%

24%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Man City winDrawBrighton win

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

2–1

10%

2–0

8%

1–0

6%

1–2

6%

How we got to 52%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Man City's attack

+16

Brighton's attack

−7

Brighton's defence

+3

Man City team news

−1

Man City's defence

+1

Brighton team news

+0

Our call: Man City win

52%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Man City are leaking chances at home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Man City created 2.5 and allowed 1.8 a game. Over their last 5 away games Brighton created 1.9 and allowed 1.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Man City created (home)

2.5

Man City allowed (home)

1.8

Brighton created (away)

1.9

Brighton allowed (away)

1.6

2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Man City: Semenyo (injured), Matheus N. (doubtful, 75% to play). Brighton: F.Kadıoğlu (doubtful, 75% to play), Andrés (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Man City Semenyo	Injured	Small
Man City Matheus N.	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small
Brighton F.Kadıoğlu	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small
Brighton Andrés	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Similar recent form

Last five league games: Man City took 12 points, Brighton took 12.

Man City

WWWWL

Brighton

WWWWL

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Man City's results flatter them by 4 points

Man City have 22 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 18. We rate teams on their chances, so Man City get less credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

All of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Jan 2026Man City 1-1 Brighton
Aug 2025Brighton 2-1 Man City
Mar 2025Man City 2-2 Brighton
Nov 2024Brighton 2-1 Man City

Man City's attack should be too much for Brighton