Data-driven Premier League predictions, with the reasons. New every Thursday.
ArsenalNext: Nott'm Forest v Arsenal, Sun 16:30. We call Arsenal win, 0–1 (50%).
On the quality of their chances, Arsenal deserved 11.6 points so far, against the 15 they have. Results have run well ahead of the performances. That ranks 1st in the table they deserved.
| Game | Score | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct v Leeds | W 2–1 | 2.3–1.2 |
| 19 Sep at Brighton | L 0–3 | 1.2–2.1 |
| 12 Sep at Sunderland | W 2–0 | 2.0–2.1 |
| 06 Sep v Chelsea | W 2–1 | 2.8–0.4 |
| 31 Aug at Aston Villa | W 1–0 | 1.5–0.3 |
| 21 Aug v Coventry | W 3–0 | 1.9–0.6 |
| GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest (A)win 50% | Everton (H)win 63% | Liverpool (A)win 44% | Hull (H)win 63% | Newcastle (A)win 53% | Man City (H)win 45% |