Inkwell & Algorithm

Data-driven Premier League predictions, with the reasons. New every Thursday.

2026/27 · 16th on 5 points from 6 games

Aston Villa

Next: Newcastle v Aston Villa, Sat 17:30. We call Newcastle win, 2–1 (43%).

On the quality of their chances, Aston Villa deserved 6.1 points so far, against the 5 they have. Results are a fair reflection of the performances. That ranks 19th in the table they deserved.

Chances made and given away
Expected goals (xG) in every league game this season, oldest on the left: created above the line, allowed below.
CreatedAllowed
GameScorexG
10 Oct v BrentfordD 2–21.8–1.3
19 Sep at TottenhamW 3–21.7–1.7
12 Sep v Nott'm ForestL 1–21.1–2.8
05 Sep at HullD 0–01.6–0.8
31 Aug v ArsenalL 0–10.3–1.5
23 Aug at BrightonL 0–40.3–4.0

The fixtures ahead

GW7GW8GW9GW10GW11GW12
Newcastle (A)win 31%Man City (H)win 24%Fulham (H)win 47%Man United (A)win 23%Sunderland (H)win 48%Ipswich (A)win 45%