Aston Villa v Fulham prediction: Aston Villa win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

47%

28%

25%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Aston Villa winDrawFulham win

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

2–1

9%

1–0

9%

2–0

8%

0–0

8%

How we got to 47%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Fulham's defence

+6

Aston Villa's defence

−4

Aston Villa's attack

+3

Fulham's attack

+2

Fulham team news

+0

Our call: Aston Villa win

47%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Aston Villa are leaking chances at home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Aston Villa created 1.3 and allowed 1.9 a game. Over their last 5 away games Fulham created 1.2 and allowed 1.3.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Aston Villa created (home)

1.3

Aston Villa allowed (home)

1.9

Fulham created (away)

1.2

Fulham allowed (away)

1.3

2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Fulham: Affengruber (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Fulham Affengruber	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Aston Villa arrive in better form

Last five league games: Aston Villa took 10 points, Fulham took 8.

Aston Villa

LWDWW

Fulham

DDLWW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Aston Villa's results flatter them by 4 points

Aston Villa have 17 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 13. Fulham have 12, from chances worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Aston Villa get less credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

2 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Apr 2026Fulham 1-0 Aston Villa
Sep 2025Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham
May 2025Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham
Oct 2024Fulham 1-3 Aston Villa

Fulham's leaky defence hands Aston Villa the edge