Inkwell & Algorithm Back to Matchweek 7 · After kick-off
The breakdown · Saturday 17 October, 15:00

Nothing to split Brentford and Liverpool

The model would have called Brentford win, 2–1, with a 42% chance (bookmakers 40%). Here is everything that went into it.

Home
Brentford
4th · 10 pts
Called after kick-off · confidence: too close to call
2–1
Home win
Away
Liverpool
9th · 9 pts

Us against the market

Our model
42%
26%
32%
Bookmakers (average, margin removed)
40%
26%
34%
Brentford winDrawLiverpool win

Most likely scores

1–1
12%
2–1
9%
1–2
8%
2–2
6%
2–0
6%
How we got to 42%
We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.
Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point
Average home side v average visitor
40%
Brentford's attack
+7
Liverpool's attack
−5
Brentford's defence
−5
Liverpool's defence
+4
Our call: Brentford win
42%
0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Liverpool are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Brentford created 2.4 and allowed 1.3 a game. Over their last 5 away games Liverpool created 1.6 and allowed 1.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue
Brentford created (home)
2.4
Brentford allowed (home)
1.3
Liverpool created (away)
1.6
Liverpool allowed (away)
1.6
2 · Form

Liverpool arrive in better form

Last five league games: Brentford took 7 points, Liverpool took 8.

Brentford
DDDWD
Liverpool
DWDWL
Last 5 league games, most recent on the right
3 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

2 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

  • May 2026Liverpool 1-1 Brentford
  • Oct 2025Brentford 3-2 Liverpool
  • Jan 2025Brentford 0-2 Liverpool
  • Aug 2024Liverpool 2-0 Brentford

What would change our mind

If Brentford's attack were only average, this would swing to an away win (37%).

Verdict

Brentford 2–1 Liverpool, home win, too close to call