Brighton v Crystal Palace prediction: Brighton win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

60%

22%

18%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

61%

21%

18%

Brighton winDrawCrystal Palace win

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

10%

2–0

9%

3–1

7%

1–0

7%

How we got to 60%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Crystal Palace's defence

+13

Brighton's attack

+10

Brighton's defence

−2

Crystal Palace's attack

−1

Our call: Brighton win

60%

0%35%70%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Crystal Palace are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Brighton created 2.2 and allowed 1.3 a game. Over their last 5 away games Crystal Palace created 1.6 and allowed 1.8.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Brighton created (home)

2.2

Brighton allowed (home)

1.3

Crystal Palace created (away)

1.6

Crystal Palace allowed (away)

1.8

2 · Form

Brighton arrive in better form

Last five league games: Brighton took 10 points, Crystal Palace took 7.

Brighton

LDWWW

Crystal Palace

LWLDW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Finishing

Brighton are scoring above their chances

Brighton have 18 goals from 14.5 xG this season. Finishing like that tends to cool off, so we lean on the chances, not the goals.

4 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

3 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Feb 2026Brighton 0-1 Crystal Palace
Nov 2025Crystal Palace 0-0 Brighton
Apr 2025Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton
Dec 2024Brighton 1-3 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace's leaky defence hands Brighton the edge