Everton v Chelsea prediction: Everton win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

39%

27%

34%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

30%

26%

44%

Everton winDrawChelsea win

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–2

6%

0–0

6%

How we got to 39%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Chelsea's defence

+10

Chelsea's attack

−6

Everton's defence

−3

Everton's attack

−1

Our call: Everton win

39%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Chelsea are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Everton created 1.6 and allowed 1.4 a game. Over their last 5 away games Chelsea created 1.1 and allowed 1.9.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Everton created (home)

1.6

Everton allowed (home)

1.4

Chelsea created (away)

1.1

Chelsea allowed (away)

1.9

2 · Form

Similar recent form

Last five league games: Everton took 7 points, Chelsea took 7.

Everton

DDDWD

Chelsea

WLDLW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Finishing

Chelsea are scoring above their chances

Chelsea have 15 goals from 10.3 xG this season. Finishing like that tends to cool off, so we lean on the chances, not the goals.

4 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

2 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Mar 2026Everton 3-0 Chelsea
Dec 2025Chelsea 2-0 Everton
Apr 2025Chelsea 1-0 Everton
Dec 2024Everton 0-0 Chelsea

Nothing to split Everton and Chelsea