Inkwell & Algorithm Back to Matchweek 7 · After kick-off

The breakdown · Saturday 17 October, 15:00

Nothing to split Fulham and Hull

The model would have called Fulham win, 1–0, with a 38% chance (bookmakers 55%). Here is everything that went into it.

Home

Fulham

20th · 2 pts

Called after kick-off · confidence: too close to call

1–0

Home win

Away

Hull

8th · 9 pts

Us against the market

Our model

38%

31%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

55%

24%

21%

Fulham winDrawHull win

Most likely scores

1–1

15%

0–0

11%

1–0

10%

0–1

2–1

How we got to 38%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Fulham's defence

−5

Hull's defence

Fulham's attack

−3

Hull's attack

Our call: Fulham win

38%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Fulham are leaking chances at home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Fulham created 1.8 and allowed 1.7 a game. Over their last 3 away games Hull created 1.1 and allowed 1.3.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Fulham created (home)

1.8

Fulham allowed (home)

1.7

Hull created (away)

1.1

Hull allowed (away)

1.3

2 · Form

Hull arrive in better form

Last five league games: Fulham took 2 points, Hull took 6.

Fulham

LLDDL

Hull

WDDLD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Results vs performance

Fulham's results undersell them by 7 points

Fulham have 6 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 13. We rate teams on their chances, so Fulham get more credit than their results.

What would change our mind

The biggest single factor is Hull's defence. If Hull's defence were only average, the home win chance would drop to 35%.

Verdict

Fulham 1–0 Hull, home win, too close to call