Man City v Ipswich prediction: Man City win 3–0

Us against the market

Our model

80%

13%

7%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

76%

15%

9%

Man City winDrawIpswich win

Most likely scores

3–0

10%

2–0

10%

3–1

8%

2–1

8%

4–0

7%

How we got to 80%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Ipswich's defence

+21

Man City's attack

+16

Ipswich's attack

+2

Man City's defence

+1

Our call: Man City win

80%

0%40%80%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Ipswich are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Man City created 2.1 and allowed 1.6 a game. Over their last 5 away games Ipswich created 1.5 and allowed 2.0.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Man City created (home)

2.1

Man City allowed (home)

1.6

Ipswich created (away)

1.5

Ipswich allowed (away)

2.0

2 · Form

Man City arrive in better form

Last five league games: Man City took 15 points, Ipswich took 6.

Man City

WWWWW

Ipswich

LLWLW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Results vs performance

Man City's results flatter them by 7 points

Man City have 25 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 18. We rate teams on their chances, so Man City get less credit than their results.

4 · Head to head

Not much history to go on

None of the last 2 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Jan 2025Ipswich 0-6 Man City
Aug 2024Man City 4-1 Ipswich

Ipswich's leaky defence hands Man City the edge