Inkwell & Algorithm Back to Matchweek 7 · After kick-off

The breakdown · Saturday 17 October, 17:30

Nothing to split Newcastle and Aston Villa

The model would have called Newcastle win, 2–1, with a 43% chance (bookmakers 42%). Here is everything that went into it.

Home

Newcastle

11th · 8 pts

Called after kick-off · confidence: too close to call

2–1

Home win

Away

Aston Villa

16th · 5 pts

Us against the market

Our model

43%

26%

31%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

42%

26%

32%

Newcastle winDrawAston Villa win

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

2–1

1–2

2–2

2–0

How we got to 43%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Aston Villa's defence

Newcastle's defence

−8

Newcastle's attack

Aston Villa's attack

−2

Our call: Newcastle win

43%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Aston Villa are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Newcastle created 1.8 and allowed 1.8 a game. Over their last 5 away games Aston Villa created 1.6 and allowed 1.9.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Newcastle created (home)

1.8

Newcastle allowed (home)

1.8

Aston Villa created (away)

1.6

Aston Villa allowed (away)

1.9

2 · Form

Newcastle arrive in better form

Last five league games: Newcastle took 7 points, Aston Villa took 5.

Newcastle

WDLWL

Aston Villa

LDLWD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Head to head

Usually one-sided when they meet

1 of the last 4 meetings was drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Jan 2026Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa
Aug 2025Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle
Apr 2025Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle
Dec 2024Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa

What would change our mind

If Aston Villa's defence were only average, this would swing to an away win (37%).

Verdict

Newcastle 2–1 Aston Villa, home win, too close to call