Nott'm Forest v Arsenal prediction: Arsenal win 0–1

Us against the market

Our model

21%

28%

50%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

17%

25%

59%

Nott'm Forest winDrawArsenal win

Most likely scores

1–1

14%

0–1

11%

0–2

10%

0–0

10%

1–2

9%

How we got to 50%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

28%

Arsenal's attack

+10

Arsenal's defence

+6

Nott'm Forest's defence

+6

Nott'm Forest's attack

−0

Our call: Arsenal win

50%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Arsenal are creating far more on the road

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Nott'm Forest created 1.3 and allowed 1.1 a game. Over their last 5 away games Arsenal created 2.0 and allowed 1.4.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Nott'm Forest created (home)

1.3

Nott'm Forest allowed (home)

1.1

Arsenal created (away)

2.0

Arsenal allowed (away)

1.4

2 · Form

Arsenal arrive in better form

Last five league games: Nott'm Forest took 5 points, Arsenal took 12.

Nott'm Forest

DDWLL

Arsenal

WWWLW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

3 · Results vs performance

Arsenal's results flatter them by 6 points

Arsenal have 27 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 21. Nott'm Forest have 10, from chances worth 16. We rate teams on their chances, so Arsenal get less credit than their results.

4 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

2 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Jan 2026Nott'm Forest 0-0 Arsenal
Sep 2025Arsenal 3-0 Nott'm Forest
Feb 2025Nott'm Forest 0-0 Arsenal
Nov 2024Arsenal 3-0 Nott'm Forest

Arsenal's attack should be too much for Nott'm Forest