Tottenham v Coventry prediction: Tottenham win 1–0

Us against the market

Our model

42%

31%

27%

Bookmakers (average, margin removed)

64%

21%

15%

Tottenham winDrawCoventry win

Most likely scores

1–1

15%

0–0

11%

1–0

11%

2–1

9%

2–0

8%

How we got to 42%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Coventry's defence

+9

Tottenham's defence

−6

Tottenham's attack

−5

Coventry's attack

+5

Tottenham team news

−3

Coventry team news

+1

Our call: Tottenham win

42%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Coventry are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Tottenham created 1.3 and allowed 1.3 a game. Over their last 3 away games Coventry created 0.9 and allowed 1.8.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Tottenham created (home)

1.3

Tottenham allowed (home)

1.3

Coventry created (away)

0.9

Coventry allowed (away)

1.8

2 · Team news

Tottenham without Sávio

Tottenham: Sávio (injured), Bentancur (suspended). Coventry: Amenda (injured).

Player	Status	Impact
Tottenham Sávio	Injured	Medium
Tottenham Bentancur	Suspended	Small
Coventry Amenda	Injured	Medium

3 · Form

Coventry arrive in better form

Last five league games: Tottenham took 3 points, Coventry took 6.

Tottenham

LDDLD

Coventry

LLLWW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Tottenham's results undersell them by 5 points

Tottenham have 10 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Tottenham get more credit than their results.

Nothing to split Tottenham and Coventry