Arsenal v Everton prediction: Arsenal win 1–0

Us against the market

Our model

61%

26%

13%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Arsenal winDrawEverton win

Most likely scores

1–0

14%

2–0

13%

1–1

12%

0–0

10%

2–1

9%

How we got to 61%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Arsenal's attack

+11

Arsenal's defence

+6

Everton's defence

+5

Arsenal team news

−3

Everton's attack

+2

Our call: Arsenal win

61%

0%35%70%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Everton are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Arsenal created 2.5 and allowed 0.6 a game. Over their last 5 away games Everton created 1.7 and allowed 1.8.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Arsenal created (home)

2.5

Arsenal allowed (home)

0.6

Everton created (away)

1.7

Everton allowed (away)

1.8

2 · Team news

Arsenal without Saka

Arsenal: Saka (doubtful, 50% to play), Tzolis (injured).

Player	Status	Impact
Arsenal Saka	Doubtful, 50% to play	Medium
Arsenal Tzolis	Injured	Small

3 · Form

Arsenal arrive in better form

Last five league games: Arsenal took 12 points, Everton took 6.

Arsenal

WWLWW

Everton

DDWDL

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Arsenal's results flatter them by 8 points

Arsenal have 27 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 19. We rate teams on their chances, so Arsenal get less credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

3 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Mar 2026Arsenal 2-0 Everton
Dec 2025Everton 0-1 Arsenal
Apr 2025Everton 1-1 Arsenal
Dec 2024Arsenal 0-0 Everton

Arsenal's attack should be too much for Everton