We call Man City win, 1–2, with a 47% chance. Here is everything that went into it.
Aston Villa
Man CityNo bookmaker odds for this game yet.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Aston Villa created 1.3 and allowed 1.6 a game. Over their last 5 away games Man City created 1.6 and allowed 1.2.
Aston Villa: Wan-Bissaka (injured), Manzambi (doubtful, 75% to play). Man City: Semenyo (injured), Matheus N. (doubtful, 75% to play), O'Reilly (doubtful, 75% to play).
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa Wan-Bissaka | Injured | Medium |
| Aston Villa Manzambi | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Man City Semenyo | Injured | Small |
| Man City Matheus N. | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Man City O'Reilly | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
Last five league games: Aston Villa took 8 points, Man City took 15.
Man City have 25 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 18. We rate teams on their chances, so Man City get less credit than their results.
All of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.
If Man City's attack were only average, this would swing to a home win (37%).
Aston Villa 1–2 Man City, away win, solid