We call Chelsea win, 2–1, with a 57% chance. Here is everything that went into it.
Chelsea
TottenhamNo bookmaker odds for this game yet.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Chelsea created 1.9 and allowed 1.9 a game. Over their last 5 away games Tottenham created 1.5 and allowed 1.5.
Chelsea: Martinez (injured), James (injured), Chavarria (doubtful, 75% to play), Gusto (doubtful, 75% to play). Tottenham: Sávio (injured), Robertson (doubtful, 75% to play), Marmoush (doubtful, 75% to play), Bentancur (suspended).
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Martinez | Injured | Medium |
| Chelsea James | Injured | Medium |
| Chelsea Chavarria | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Chelsea Gusto | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Tottenham Sávio | Injured | Medium |
| Tottenham Robertson | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
Last five league games: Chelsea took 7 points, Tottenham took 6.
Chelsea have 17 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 12. Tottenham have 10, from chances worth 14. We rate teams on their chances, so Chelsea get less credit than their results.
All of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.
The biggest single factor is Chelsea's attack. If Chelsea's attack were only average, the home win chance would drop to 46%.
Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham, home win, strong