The breakdown · Saturday 24 October, 15:00

Nothing to split Coventry and Fulham

We call Fulham win, 0–1, with a 36% chance. Here is everything that went into it.

Home

Coventry

17th · 6 pts

Our call · confidence: too close to call

0–1

Away win

Away

Fulham

18th · 5 pts

Us against the market

Our model

33%

30%

36%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Coventry winDrawFulham win

Most likely scores

1–1

14%

0–0

10%

0–1

1–0

1–2

How we got to 36%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

28%

Coventry's defence

+10

Coventry's attack

Fulham's defence

−4

Fulham's attack

−2

Coventry team news

Our call: Fulham win

36%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Fulham are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 3 home games Coventry created 1.3 and allowed 1.8 a game. Over their last 5 away games Fulham created 1.2 and allowed 2.0.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Coventry created (home)

1.3

Coventry allowed (home)

1.8

Fulham created (away)

1.2

Fulham allowed (away)

2.0

2 · Team news

Coventry without Amenda

Coventry: Amenda (injured).

Player	Status	Impact
Coventry Amenda	Injured	Medium

3 · Form

Coventry arrive in better form

Last five league games: Coventry took 6 points, Fulham took 5.

Coventry

LLWWL

Fulham

LDDLW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Fulham's results undersell them by 6 points

Fulham have 9 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 15. We rate teams on their chances, so Fulham get more credit than their results.

What would change our mind

If Coventry's defence were only average, this would swing to a home win (40%).

Verdict

Coventry 0–1 Fulham, away win, too close to call