Crystal Palace v Newcastle prediction: Crystal Palace win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

40%

26%

34%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Crystal Palace winDrawNewcastle win

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

2–1

9%

1–2

8%

2–2

7%

2–0

6%

How we got to 40%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Newcastle's defence

+11

Crystal Palace's defence

−9

Newcastle's attack

−2

Crystal Palace's attack

+1

Crystal Palace team news

−0

Our call: Crystal Palace win

40%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Newcastle are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Crystal Palace created 1.7 and allowed 2.9 a game. Over their last 5 away games Newcastle created 1.2 and allowed 1.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Crystal Palace created (home)

1.7

Crystal Palace allowed (home)

2.9

Newcastle created (away)

1.2

Newcastle allowed (away)

1.6

2 · Team news

Only minor absences

Crystal Palace: Henderson (doubtful, 50% to play), Timber (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Crystal Palace Henderson	Doubtful, 50% to play	Small
Crystal Palace Timber	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Crystal Palace arrive in better form

Last five league games: Crystal Palace took 7 points, Newcastle took 4.

Crystal Palace

WLDWL

Newcastle

DLWLL

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

2 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Apr 2026Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle
Jan 2026Newcastle 2-0 Crystal Palace
Apr 2025Newcastle 5-0 Crystal Palace
Nov 2024Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle

Nothing to split Crystal Palace and Newcastle