The breakdown · Sunday 25 October, 14:00

Nothing to split Hull and Brentford

We call Brentford win, 0–1, with a 39% chance. Here is everything that went into it.

Home

Hull

9th · 9 pts

Our call · confidence: too close to call

0–1

Away win

Away

Brentford

6th · 10 pts

Us against the market

Our model

31%

30%

39%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Hull winDrawBrentford win

Most likely scores

1–1

14%

0–0

10%

0–1

1–2

1–0

How we got to 39%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

28%

Brentford's attack

Hull's attack

Brentford's defence

−4

Hull's defence

Brentford team news

−2

Hull team news

Our call: Brentford win

39%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Brentford are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 3 home games Hull created 1.3 and allowed 2.1 a game. Over their last 5 away games Brentford created 1.2 and allowed 2.6.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Hull created (home)

1.3

Hull allowed (home)

2.1

Brentford created (away)

1.2

Brentford allowed (away)

2.6

2 · Team news

Hull without Mendy

Hull: Mendy (injured). Brentford: Janelt (suspended), Schuster (doubtful, 75% to play), Yarmoliuk (suspended).

Player	Status	Impact
Hull Mendy	Injured	Medium
Brentford Janelt	Suspended	Small
Brentford Schuster	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small
Brentford Yarmoliuk	Suspended	Small

3 · Form

Brentford arrive in better form

Last five league games: Hull took 3 points, Brentford took 6.

Hull

DDLDL

Brentford

DDWDL

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

What would change our mind

If Brentford's attack were only average, this would swing to a home win (35%).

Verdict

Hull 0–1 Brentford, away win, too close to call