Liverpool v Brighton prediction: Liverpool win 2–1

Us against the market

Our model

37%

28%

36%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Liverpool winDrawBrighton win

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

2–1

8%

1–2

8%

0–0

7%

1–0

6%

How we got to 37%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

40%

Brighton's attack

−8

Liverpool's attack

+7

Liverpool team news

−3

Liverpool's defence

−2

Brighton's defence

+2

Our call: Liverpool win

37%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Brighton are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Liverpool created 1.5 and allowed 1.5 a game. Over their last 5 away games Brighton created 2.1 and allowed 1.9.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Liverpool created (home)

1.5

Liverpool allowed (home)

1.5

Brighton created (away)

2.1

Brighton allowed (away)

1.9

2 · Team news

Liverpool without Szoboszlai

Liverpool: Szoboszlai (injured), Munoz (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Liverpool Szoboszlai	Injured	Big
Liverpool Munoz	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Brighton arrive in better form

Last five league games: Liverpool took 10 points, Brighton took 13.

Liverpool

WDWLW

Brighton

DWWWW

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Finishing

Brighton are scoring above their chances

Brighton have 23 goals from 16.8 xG this season. Finishing like that tends to cool off, so we lean on the chances, not the goals.

5 · Head to head

Tight when they meet

3 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Mar 2026Brighton 2-1 Liverpool
Dec 2025Liverpool 2-0 Brighton
May 2025Brighton 3-2 Liverpool
Nov 2024Liverpool 2-1 Brighton

Nothing to split Liverpool and Brighton