We call Man United win, 2–1, with a 44% chance. Here is everything that went into it.
Man United
BournemouthNo bookmaker odds for this game yet.
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Man United created 2.7 and allowed 1.6 a game. Over their last 5 away games Bournemouth created 1.3 and allowed 1.6.
Man United: Shaw (injured), Mainoo (injured), Martinez (doubtful, 75% to play), Rashford (doubtful, 75% to play). Bournemouth: Scott (injured).
| Player | Status | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Man United Shaw | Injured | Medium |
| Man United Mainoo | Injured | Small |
| Man United Martinez | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Man United Rashford | Doubtful, 75% to play | Small |
| Bournemouth Scott | Injured | Small |
Last five league games: Man United took 4 points, Bournemouth took 5.
Bournemouth have 11 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 16. We rate teams on their chances, so Bournemouth get more credit than their results.
3 of the last 4 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.
The biggest single factor is Man United's attack. If Man United's attack were only average, the home win chance would drop to 36%.
Man United 2–1 Bournemouth, home win, too close to call