Sunderland v Leeds prediction: Leeds win 0–1

Us against the market

Our model

28%

30%

42%

No bookmaker odds for this game yet.

Sunderland winDrawLeeds win

Most likely scores

1–1

14%

0–0

10%

0–1

10%

1–2

9%

0–2

8%

How we got to 42%

We start from an average home side against an average visitor, then add or take away for each factor. Hover a bar for the detail.

Pushes towards our call Pushes against it Starting point

Average home side v average visitor

28%

Sunderland's defence

+8

Sunderland's attack

+3

Sunderland team news

+3

Leeds' defence

−2

Leeds' attack

+1

Our call: Leeds win

42%

0%30%60%

The reasons

1 · Chances created and allowed

Leeds are leaking chances away from home

Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances. Over their last 5 home games Sunderland created 1.6 and allowed 1.2 a game. Over their last 5 away games Leeds created 1.5 and allowed 1.9.

xG per game, last 5 at this venue

Sunderland created (home)

1.6

Sunderland allowed (home)

1.2

Leeds created (away)

1.5

Leeds allowed (away)

1.9

2 · Team news

Sunderland without Ballard

Sunderland: Ballard (injured), Danso (suspended), Brobbey (doubtful, 75% to play), Meunier (doubtful, 75% to play).

Player	Status	Impact
Sunderland Ballard	Injured	Medium
Sunderland Danso	Suspended	Medium
Sunderland Brobbey	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small
Sunderland Meunier	Doubtful, 75% to play	Small

3 · Form

Leeds arrive in better form

Last five league games: Sunderland took 1 points, Leeds took 6.

Sunderland

DLLLL

Leeds

DWDLD

Last 5 league games, most recent on the right

4 · Results vs performance

Sunderland's results undersell them by 3 points

Sunderland have 11 points from their last 10 league games, but their chances were worth 14. We rate teams on their chances, so Sunderland get more credit than their results.

5 · Head to head

Not much history to go on

All of the last 2 meetings were drawn or won by one goal. Past meetings count for little in the model.

Mar 2026Leeds 0-1 Sunderland
Dec 2025Sunderland 1-1 Leeds

Nothing to split Sunderland and Leeds