Data-driven Premier League predictions, with the reasons. New every Thursday.
Man CityNext: Man City v Ipswich, Sat 15:00. We call Man City win, 3–0 (80%).
On the quality of their chances, Man City deserved 11.3 points so far, against the 18 they have. Results have run well ahead of the performances. That ranks 2nd in the table they deserved.
| Game | Score | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct at Liverpool | W 3–0 | 1.6–0.8 |
| 20 Sep v Sunderland | W 5–3 | 2.7–3.1 |
| 13 Sep at Man United | W 1–0 | 1.1–0.9 |
| 05 Sep v Coventry | W 1–0 | 2.2–1.5 |
| 28 Aug at Crystal Palace | W 4–1 | 2.6–0.9 |
| 23 Aug v Bournemouth | W 2–1 | 2.5–0.7 |
| GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | GW11 | GW12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich (H)win 80% | Aston Villa (A)win 50% | Brighton (H)win 55% | Nott'm Forest (A)win 50% | Fulham (H)win 68% | Arsenal (A)win 27% |